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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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